16 February 2025
A coordinated, international effort to develop an early warning system
Introducing the first 26 teams funded within Forecasting Tipping Points.
Today we’re announcing the first 26 teams that will be funded within its five-year £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points programme. Through a coordinated international effort, these projects will work to develop an early warning system that enhances our understanding of when climate tipping points are likely to be crossed and provides the critical information needed to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.
A climate tipping point is a critical point in Earth's climate system that, when crossed, can trigger large, irreversible changes. Major Earth systems risk crossing climate tipping points this century, potentially exposing half a billion people to flooding while threatening biodiversity and food security. Yet we have very little data on when, how, or whether these will happen.
If successful, the programme will:
1. In the short term, shift the conversation from whether an early warning system is possible to demonstrating its feasibility, serving as a proof of concept for broader application across other tipping point systems.
2. In the longer term, develop an affordable and sustainable early warning system that provides decision-makers with the information needed to implement effective mitigation and adaptation measures, reducing the impact of abrupt climate change.
3. Catalyse the development of a new community around climate tipping points, attracting new talent to the UK and unlocking crucial investment opportunities.
The projects span three, deeply connected technical areas, united by a multiyear, coordinated field campaign across two parts of the Earth system that could cross tipping points in the next century: the Greenland Ice Sheet and Subpolar Gyre. The technical areas are:
1. The design and development of sensing systems in the ocean and cryosphere – for example Oshen, a UK-based startup, is trialling the deployment of hand-deployable, wind-propelled autonomous robots at sea to collect year-round data on critical ocean-atmosphere processes.
2. The deployment of sensing systems in Greenland Ice Sheet and Subpolar Gyre – for example: Greenlandic research institute ASIAQ will deploy new robust climate monitoring stations in the previously inaccessible eastern coast of Greenland to help develop more comprehensive forecasting models.
3. Unlocking the necessary computational methods to create and test early warning systems – for example: The University of Exeter is looking to improve early warning of tipping points, focusing on the subpolar gyre, by combining theoretical advances, AI, and a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved.
The GRAIL project (now renamed to GIANT) is a pivotal initiative in the programme, led by the British Antarctic Survey in collaboration with an international consortium of leading research institutions, including experts in climate modelling, artificial intelligence, and marine sciences. Focusing on the critical intersection between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Subpolar Gyre ocean, the project will develop advanced sensing systems and combine their outputs with AI models to uncover the drivers of glacial melt and better understand its impacts on the climate and ocean communities.
The programme has gathered leading climate experts, including Greenlandic researchers with advanced knowledge of the Greenland ecosystem, alongside new entrants to the field – pivoting from fields like optics, computer science and nuclear physics – to collaborate on new solutions to this critical challenge, with two teams establishing new non-profit organisations in the UK.
“In a similar way to how we use monitoring stations to detect and warn for tsunamis, we’re aiming to establish networks of climate monitoring systems to detect early signs of critical shifts in our climate.” said Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek, the Programme Directors co-leading the programme. “Through these systems, we can equip decision-makers with the data they need to confront the threat of abrupt climate change head on.”