Forecasting Tipping Points
Backed by £114m, this programme sits within the Resilient Climate and Ecosystems opportunity space and aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points.
Funding: Forecasting Tipping Points Phase 2 – Concept papers
Submit your application by 09 October 2026 (14:00 BST)
The Forecasting Tipping Points programme is entering its second phase, moving from understanding the science of climate tipping points to building a usable early warning system that warns of changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We are now inviting proposals related to ocean observing, forecasting, and decision-useful climate-evidence translation; we’re also keen to hear from prospective users, partners, and co-funders who could help build a lasting capability.
Learn more about Phase 2 of this programme.
What we’re looking for
We are seeking ambitious, interdisciplinary teams that can fill specific gaps in our portfolio as we build an end-to-end early warning system: in adaptive ocean observation, interannual-to-decadal forecasting, impacts and response assessment, and independent systems integration.
We welcome climate and ocean scientists alongside experts in autonomous systems, sensing, metrology, AI, data assimilation, social-science, decision science, risk, product development and systems engineering, especially where they embed in their teams prospective users from fisheries and marine management, finance, or climate security.
Join a team
We have a live teaming tool that allows applicants to find complementary expertise. After a quick registration, you can browse other researchers and request an introduction from the ARIA team to explore potential collaborations.
How to apply
We’re now accepting concept papers for projects across all areas of the early warning system.
Concept paper window opening: 18 September 2026 (Open)
Concept paper submission deadline: 09 October 2026 (14:00 BST)
Full proposals window opening: 27 October 2026
Full proposals submission deadline: 02 December 2026 (14:00 GMT)
Read the call for proposals and apply below.
Resources
Call for proposals
Call for proposals (accessible) [coming soon]
Planetary Foresight: Envisioning an early warning system for climate tipping points (preprint)
Applicant guidance
Accessibility support
Clarification questions
If you have any additional questions, please use the chat function on this page for the quickest response – you'll find the icon in the bottom right-hand corner of your screen. It can guide you to the right information or connect you with the ARIA team if needed. We’ll update this page with questions and answers.
Nb: Clarification questions that need to be reviewed by the ARIA team should be submitted via the chat function no later than four days prior to the relevant deadline date. Clarification questions received after this date will not be reviewed.
The projects we have funded were selected from teams and individuals who applied to our previous funding calls for this programme. You can read more about these archived calls below.
How we work
We seek out exceptional scientists and engineers and empower them with the resources and autonomy to turn their ideas into reality.
Applicant guidance
Discover the process of applying for ARIA funding and find key resources.